The Fall of a nation - unravelling the Brexit vote

Well, they’ve finally done it. After years of incessant bombardment with inane propaganda, the British decided on June 23rd, to vote to leave the European Union. Brexit is upon us, and no one has any idea about what to do next. That includes the global financial markets, which have been almost in free-fall since the referendum results were announced early on Friday morning. And, as if matters weren’t bad enough already, the only people who could clarify the situation, Prime Minister David Cameron, and his second in command, Chancellor George Osborne, are nowhere to be found. But what is this all about, and what effects will it have?

Well, lets start from scratch. The question that was put to the British public was easy: Should the UK remain within the European Union? I’ve touched on the nature of the EU and on its inner workings in an older article on my blog, so I won’t go into too much detail on that here, suffice to say that EU membership not only provides free access to a market of 500 million people, but also enables citizens of any EU member state to settle in any other member state. The UK has decided to walk away from all of this. And, in the process, may have seriously shots itself in the foot, and possibly sealed its own fate.

You see, one of the major economic engines of the United Kingdom is the financial industry centred around the City of London. Under EU treaties, these banks had free access to the entire European market. This will change however, Brexit could mean that UK banks would be locked out, and that London could possibly lose its status as a major trading hub to other European cities, Dublin and Frankfurt being the biggest favourites for this. The same problem will affect the manufacturing sector, with almost all large companies in the UK being part of larger European or global conglomerates. Up until now, they have been able to move parts freely between their plants without any taxes or documentation, all that is now in serious jeopardy, and could well see the likes of EADS/Airbus leave the country for good. 

And then, there’s the issue of the UK steel industry. This once huge industry that built the vast networks of railways spanning the empire, and forged the steel for the ships that connected, and for the guns that defended it, is a mere shadow of its former self, with just one steel mill remaining in operation at Port Talbot. That one is running at a huge loss due to much cheaper Chinese import steel being available, and its current owners want to sell it of. Any such sales efforts are however seriously at risk, almost all potential buyers shying away due to the risk posed by Brexit.

And what’s all this hullabaloo about the UK having sealed it’s own fate? Well, the UK consists of four separate countries bound together by numerous treaties, laws, and a common loyalty to the English crown: England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland. I’m gonna leave out the “breadcrumbs” of the Isle of Man or the Channel Islands, as they are too small to be of major concern. Scotland and Northern Ireland, however, are. Both of these countries voted overwhelmingly in favour of remaining in the EU. In the case of Scotland, not one electoral area voted out. That in itself wouldn’t be problematic, however, both countries have the option of launching their own referendum to decide whether to secede from the United Kingdom. Scotland just held such a referendum back in 2014, and Northern Ireland’s right to such a referendum is anchored in the Good Friday Agreement that ended the decades long civil war in Ireland. Nichola Sturgeon, the First Minister of Scotland, has already announced that her government is considering all options to ensure that Scotland remains in the EU, including a referendum. The Northern Ireland Executive in Belfast is slightly less enthusiastic, especially since the second largest party in the Executive, the DUP, campaigned for a leave vote, however, resistance against a referendum is crumbling there as well. This is not least due to the fact that no one wants the border between the North and the Republic of Ireland to be reinstated, which it would have to, if the UK is not able to secure a deal with the EU. So we are looking at a very real prospect of the UK falling apart physically.

It is certainly falling apart politically and socially at the moment. Immediately after the results were announced, Prime Minister David Cameron announced that he would be stepping down in October.  Numerous possible successors are already beginning to jockey into position in the Conservative Party. On the opposition bench, the Labour Party, which should be showing leadership in the absence of a clear position by the conservatives, is currently in open revolt against its leader Jeremy Corbyn, So, the country is currently adrift and rudderless. This comes at a time when leadership would be sorely needed, to stabilise the market, and to organise the exit process that is about to start.

How will that exit process look like? The details are up in the air at the moment, but the general procedure is that the Government of the UK will notify the EU commission that it is availing of the exit option enshrined in Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty of 2009, the “constitution” of the EU. This hasn’t happened yet, and consequently, the UK is, at this moment, still a full member of the EU with all duties and privileges. Once Article 50 is triggered, the UK will automatically be cut out of any decision making processes in the EU, and will only be a able to regain that status by unanimous vote of all 27 remaining EU member states. 

Following the triggering of Article 50, negotiations will begin between the United Kingdom, and the EU about the modalities of Britain’s exit from the union, and any future relationship between the UK and the union. These will take time, and there is time allotted for it in the Lisbon Treaty. However, the treaty also imposes a time limit of 2 years. If no deal is agreed upon and ratified within that time, the EU is locked out completely, without any deal. This timeframe can be extended, but again only if all 27 remaining member states agree. Once a deal is made, it needs to be approved by both the European Council and the European Parliament, before it can go ahead. It should be noted that UK citizens will remain EU citizens until the process is complete, and that EU citizens will also keep their rights within the EU.

How will such a future relationship look? As of this moment, nobody knows. However, chances are that the UK government will be in for a shock once they invoke Article 50. It has been clear from statements emanating from Brussels that the EU, especially the EU commission, is less than thrilled at the events of the last few days, and will be pursue a hard line in the negotiations with London. In fact, Jean-Claude Juncker, the head of the European Commission, has ordered this staff to investigate any legal means to force the triggering of Article 50 even without the Uk formally invoking it.

So a lot of things are unclear. What is clear however, is that the UK has been forced into these uncharted waters by a population that was fed exaggerations, outright lies, and an incessant stream of xenophobia and thinly veiled racism. The cowardly assassination of Labour MP Jo Cox just a week before the referendum bears bloody witness to that. Equally clear is the fact that the elderly were the driving force behind the Brexit vote, with almost two thirds of under 24-year-olds voting to remain within the EU. So once again, the younger generations will be forced to suffer because of the short sighted, bigoted, and xenophobic madness triggered by angry old men and women who won’t live long enough to have to deal with the consequences of their idiocy.