All changed, changed utterly...

“May you live in interesting times” This statement, often and apparently incorrectly attributed to be a Chinese curse, nevertheless reflects a rather sobering point: Times that are interesting to read up on are rarely as enthralling for the people who actually have to live through them. Humanity is getting a taste of this as I’m writing this. The planet is in the grip of a pandemic unlike anything before in the network age. COVID-19, while only affecting a miniscule percentage of the human population at present, has effectively brought this planet to a standstill and shut down large parts of the global economy. Air travel has effectively ceased, as has most retail activity, while tourism has pretty much suffered a terminal existence failure. Many people are likening the current events to 9/11. While certainly an apt comparison for many of those who lived through it, it doesn’t quite capture the enormity of what is currently happening, nor of the future implications. 

From my perspective, a better comparison would be the Race to the Sea. For those that don’t know, this was a series of flanking battles that took place in northern France and Belgium during the opening September and October 1914. At the time, both sides of the conflict were still optimistic that they would be able to end the conflict quickly, maybe even in time for Christmas 1914. Only when both armies reached the North Sea coast at the end of this series of battles did the realisation begin to sink in that this wouldn’t be a quick victory, even though the full horror of places like the Paschendaele, Verdun, or the Somme was still to unfold. Soldiers, officers, and civilians alike on both sides of the conflict looked on as their world crumbled around them, though few of them realised it at the time.

I fear that we are in a similar position now, in the waning weeks of March 2020. We may not realise it, but the effects of the current Corona virus outbreak are already beginning to tear down many of the pillars of the post Cold War political and economic order. The world as we know it, is quite frankly ending, crumbling in front of our very eyes, and it is not at all clear what will rise from the ruins of this breakdown. Will it be a return to the status quo ante? Will we even remember the status quo, once the current outbreak has run its course and the countries recovered? While everyone seems to be focussing on the end of the current lockdown and quarantine measures as the end of the whole affair, it is easy to forget that this will have consequences that go far, far beyond the timeframe that we’re currently talking about. Consequences that will affect every aspect of our daily lives, society, and economy.

For one, it has brought one thing into focus for a lot of us, namely not only our own mortality but also that of our loved ones. The fact that we, and those we care about are in effect transient creatures is hard to bear for many, especially when it comes to our parents, who we often see as immortal, even though we consciously know otherwise. Realising the fact that someone we love may not be there forever is a painful process, one that I went through a little less than three years ago myself, and which is still affecting me today. For many people, even the possibility of losing a loved one will leave deep and permanent traces in their mind. This is exactly what the COVID-19 outbreak has forced many people to confront, and it will be hard for a lot of people! 

Then, there’s the societal change. I personally grew up in a world that was increasingly fusing together, with borders and eventually even currencies disappearing as I grew up. Travel, moving abroad, all these things were normal and even things to strive for when I was growing up and starting my way in the world. The idea of moving abroad to find success wasn’t alien, daunting or horrifying for me, it was something I longed and worked for right until I got the offer from Apple back in 2012. For me, getting on a plane to go somewhere was natural, even more than that actually, given that I’ve got jet fuel running through my veins. The aviation nut part notwithstanding, I’m far from alone in that mindset. A lot of my co-workers over here are equally blasé about flying, though they may not be as crazy about it as I am. Yet, when the full effects of the Corona outbreak began to become apparent, air travel was effectively snuffed out across most of the globe, and a number of airlines have since had to declare bankruptcy. Given that there is still no estimation as to how long this will last, it is doubtful whether all but the most economically stable airlines will survive this mess. And even then, when will passenger numbers rebound far enough that it actually becomes profitable for airlines to operate again?

Will commercial aviation return to its pre-crisis levels at all? How will travel look like once the outbreak has been weathered?

The economy is another big matter, and here we’re truly in uncharted waters. There are a lot of voices in the media stating that the recession caused by the COVID-19 outbreak could rival that of 2008, or even reach 1929 levels, and we all know what the latter led to. I’m no economist, I’m way to honest to go into that line of work, but still the comparison to both of these two events simply doesn’t hold water in my eyes. Both the 2008 and 1929 crashes were reactions to unstable financial institutions and an overheated stock and real estate market. The current situation is different. The foundations of most economies are still intact, the banks are mostly solid, and have access to capital, should they need it. While this crash will have massive implications and will likely see the end of the post-WW2 financial system, a recovery should be relatively swift, unless it is mismanaged.

That being said, will there be a recovery? Will there be a return to the pre-crash economy? This is a very big question that will likely remain unanswered for months or years to come. In the hectic days leading up to the quasi-global shutdown, a lot of previously insurmountable obstacles were suddenly overcome, with remote working finally turning from the domain of a few new IT start-ups and a lot of bearded hipsters to a reality for pretty much everyone who works in an office environment. While many, like yours truly, will cherish the chance to get back to the office, many others may take a liking to working from home, which could trigger a major shift in population patterns and purchasing power. It remains to be seen how this will play out, but it could lead to a rejuvenation of at least some rural areas in the medium-to-long term, and a decentralisation of the population.

Working from home has just become a reality for a lot of people all over the world. How many will return to classic office environments?

While I’m not going to dive too deeply into the political aspects of the current crisis, I will touch on a few aspects though. There has long been the saying that the only way to unite humanity is in the face of a common enemy that cannot be bargained or reasoned with. Since we would likely see an alien robot intelligence coming long before it arrived here, testing this premise seemed highly unlikely for a long time. Yet in the face of his virus, a perfect little molecular Von Neumann machine, we can see parts of this begin to take shape, though still very gingerly. Cross-community cooperation appears to be on the rise in Northern Ireland, and the previously frosty relationship between the people of Japan and China seems to be thawing as well, while many of the more nationalist and populist figures in politics are seriously on the back foot now, since they lack a target to focus their blame on.

So that’s where we stand. At the precipice of a new age, without any idea how that new age, that brave new world will look like. It is a frightening prospect to be sure. Then again, a major paradigm shift also always contains the opportunity for a fresh new start. While a lot of darkness, a lot of suffering and pain might still be ahead, there is a promise of a new start at the other end, and that alone is more than enough reason to keep pushing on.